Improve Your Bet
This guide attempts to answer the hardest question in gambling which is how do I win money? Millions of us around the world make sports bets on a weekly basis. Some people do this purely for recreation and have no expectation of ever winning money, however most are in it to win some cash.
I think apart from some very unlucky people most find that some bets win and some bets lose. Again from this group most find that they lose over time and the bookies win, so why is this?
Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet. Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs, and you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. How to improve your betting? Bet smart and secure, bet with ImproveBET! ImproveBET OFFER. 30 TICKETS (3.00 - 10.00) per month. To improve your customer experience with us, IO BET only uses cookies which will improve your experience with us amd will not interfere with your privacy. Unusual Ways To Bet On Animals January 18, 2021 angelbettings Gambling and animals have long been linked, with horse racing and greyhound racing some of the most popular betting opportunities in the world.
Well it all comes down to price. If we assume that a sporting event is not fixed then all gamblers have to approach the event thinking that any result is possible. You should never look at a fixture and assume a result, you don’t know what will happen and neither does the Bookmaker.
However the Bookmaker believes that he knows roughly what the probabilities are for each possible outcome, so if Arsenal are 50% likely to beat Liverpool at home then the actual price required is 2.0.
The Bookmaker needs to make money so they will typically price them at 10/11 or 1.909 in decimals. So if you make 10 bets of £10 each on a Saturday all about 2.0 then probability suggests that 5 will win and 5 will lose. That’s fine if you got 2.0 as you will get back the £100 you started with, however if you have taken 10/11 then you will only get back £95.45.
Even betting on consistent winners like Roger Federer can lose you money in the long run
So if you want to start making money from gambling then you have to stop making betting decisions on what you think will happen, you don’t know! Start making them based on price.
So how do you as an individual determine the true probability and so price of an event? If you have a maths degree from a decent university then you can try and build your own model, however this is unnecessary as the work has been done for you by Betfair.
The money or liquidity available on Betfair is on the whole generated from very large gamblers with very sophisticated pricing models. These professional enterprises spend huge amounts of money on models and information to accurately determine the true probability and so price of each outcome. If they discover an incorrect price they invest heavily. This has the effect of changing the exchange price dramatically. The new exchange price then represents the correct probability of a result happening.
So if you want to make money from gambling you need to back at a higher price with the Bookmakers than is available at that point in time on the exchanges. So in our example if your 10 selections are all 10/11 at the Bookmakers but the exchange price is actually 1.87, then across the 10 matches you would expect to make money rather than losing it.
You can apply this central principle in three main ways:
Take the top price on your chosen selection
If you fancy Arsenal to beat Liverpool and want to bet that way because you want to watch the game then make sure you take the top price. The difference between top and bottom price can be as much as 30%, no matter how good your instincts are you cannot give away 30% and hope to win.
This means you should open an account with all the Bookmakers on an affiliate website – a favourite of mine is FootyTips365, and review the odds offered by each on a site like Odds Checker so that you can always get the top price on your chosen selection.
Remember to only use Bookies who are credible firms and who actually pay out; they must have history and a UK Gambling licence. I'd advise you not to use firms without these characteristics.
The odds of any outcome, such as Eden Hazard scoring a goal, can vary wildly from Bookie to Bookie
Bet on whatever offers value
This is the best way of making money. A quick run through on a Saturday at 9.00am will show you several examples just on the Premier League where the Bookmakers are a bigger price than Betfair. If you go through every match in every league and every horse race there are hundreds daily.
Bet no more than 5% of your bank on each selection as they will not all win, however over the month you are extremely likely to be winning money. It is possible that everything will lose its just the probabilities are in your favour.
The smaller you bet as a percentage of your bank the more the maths moves in your favour, if you have £100 and only bet £1 a game then over £100 bets you should be up, if you only do 2 bets of £50 each then although the odds are in your favour you could easily lose both bets. Once you choose your bank and staking plan stick with it as if all your bets are arbs you will win money over time.
Place an arbitrage bet or 'sure bet'
The advantage of doing a value bet is that you do not have to pay exchange commission. However if you do not want to take any risk then you can place a lay bet on the exchange so that you win whatever happens.
So for example you could bet £1,000 on United at 2.0 and then lay that off at 1.9 for £1,000 you will make £100 less comm if United win, if you use Betdaq then this is only 2%. The disadvantage is that you end up making twice as many bets and the admin becomes greater. However if you do larger stakes then you can make very good money in this way.
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Value. Risk. High payouts. Betting on the moneyline combines all the factors that make gambling on sports such an exciting venture.
If you’re not familiar with the term, the moneyline is best described as the odds you get when you bet on who will win a game straight up. When you take the spread out of the occasion, betting becomes less about luck and more about spotting your opportunities and taking advantage of them.
The unfortunate reality is that most amateur bettors ignore the moneyline because of the risk involved.
Either you bet on a favorite and risk losing more than you stand to gain, or you bet on the underdog and have a much higher chance to lose your bet.
With that being said, the moneyline presents a unique chance to win big if you have the right strategy in place. In this article, I’ll lay out the factors to take into consideration that could help you capitalize on moneyline bets in all sports.
1 – Selection Is Key
In the same way the real estate is about location, location, location, betting on the moneyline is all about selection, selection…you get the point.
Whereas betting on the spread can leave more opportunity to win bets when you don’t really know what you’re doing, consistently adding to your bankroll via moneyline bets requires you to be picky when deciding which games to play.
Obviously, the trick in finding the best value is identifying games in which the underdog has a chance to win, or betting on a favorite isn’t too costly. However, if you’re playing multiple games at once, you can take a few more chances.
It’s important to keep in mind that sportsbooks adjust their moneylines in accordance with the public’s action, so you can find instances where the odds actually lean slightly your way if you have more knowledge of a game.
Research is key when deciding which plays to make, so do an adequate amount of homework and carefully choose which underdogs you think have a chance to win a game outright.
2 – Long-Term Approach
I can’t stress this enough—betting on the moneyline is a long-term game. Evaluating your success or failure after just a few games, or even a few weeks, isn’t going to help you gather an accurate assessment.
Because the best value in betting moneylines is found on the underdog, you’re almost always going to lose more bets than you win.
The key is recognizing that you can lose more than half of your bets and still make a ton of money if you win the right games.
One of the best ways to stay on top of how you’re doing is by creating a tracking system so that you’re aware of the money coming in and money going out. Because, as previously mentioned, you’re likely to lose more bets than you win overall, it can create a distorted picture if you don’t monitor things correctly.
Improve Your Behaviour
Let’s say that over the course of an NFL weekend you bet on $50 on each of 10 games. You might lose six games, which would put you at -$300. But if you win four games at an average of +170, you’d still come out ahead.
3 – Don’t Neglect Favorites (But Choose Carefully)
Many bettors think that unless you only bet favorites, moneylines aren’t worth the risk. However, that’s not always the case.
It’s probably best to stay away from favorites in the -250 to -300 range, as this is the spot where upsets are still entirely possible and it’s not worth it to make a bet where you’ll only return a third of your money.
If you’re the type of bettor who wants to play the favorites, consider giving away some points, even if it’s not the full spread. This will increase your payouts and slightly close the gap between risk and reward.
Another move that can be profitable is a multi-team parlay with moneyline favorites.
In any given NFL week, you can choose the top three or four most lopsided games and still get a nice haul if you hit on each. While you might only win the same amount you bet, meaning $100 to win $100, it’s not necessarily too big of a risk. Just keep in mind that, as the cliché goes, anyone can win on any given Sunday.
The best odds for betting favorites exists in the -150 to -200 range. These lines present an opportunity to win back decent money for your bet. Obviously, you’re going to suffer some losses that will make you feel like it’s pointless to bet on the favorite, but that’s the price you pay for picking the team that “should” win.
4 – Consider the Sport
Bettors who like gambling on baseball and hockey games are acquainted with the power of the moneyline in a unique way. Unlike basketball and football, baseball and hockey’s “default” play is who will win the game outright.
Most baseball betting purists will contend that it’s always a smarter move to put your money on the underdog.
After all, even the worst teams in the league win about 60 times per year. Because of the unpredictability of who will win is so high, when you’re able to find an underdog at -200 or more, the value is hard to resist. Though the winning percentage numbers are slightly different, the same philosophy holds true for hockey.
Things are a little different when it comes to betting on football and basketball moneylines. In football, if there’s a favorite of -200 or more, statistically, they’re much more likely to win the game outright than in other sports.
Basketball can be a bit more difficult, as good teams are susceptible to upsets, but only in certain situations. If you’re betting on the NBA, do your research to find out which scenarios create a better chance for the underdog to win and you can make educated plays with high value.
Determining the likelihood of underdogs winning outright is always going to be a complicated proposition, so make sure to do research specific to the sport you want to bet on before taking the leap.
5 – Assess Value
All gamblers know that the key to a good betting strategy is making plays with good value. Finding value is a concept that’s easy in theory, but extremely difficult in practice.
Sportsbooks put a value on each time via the moneyline, and while this is a good starting point, it isn’t necessarily always accurate. This means that you’ll have to do some work on your end to see if your prediction of the potential outcome of a game align with the odds presented.
The best way to do this is by first evaluating each game without looking at the moneyline.
Take all factors into account such as injuries, whether or not a team is hot or cold, past history between the two teams, and obviously overall team talent. This will help you decide if a team is over, under, or properly valued.
You’ll find that an undervalued underdog is attractive because you can bet less to win more. Although this is absolutely true, bettors have a tendency to overlook undervalued favorites. If there was ever such thing as a “safe” bet, it’s a moneyline favorite when you can get odds better than -150.
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Conclusion
It’s unlikely that you’ll give up betting on spreads entirely, but adding the moneyline option to your betting strategy can have huge benefits. It’s a good way to recognize that not only do favorites not always cover the spread, but they often lose outright.
Improve Your Game Design With Better Gameplay
Find a specialty, whether it’s finding value in favorites or underdogs, and see if you can steal a few games without worrying about covering.