How To Bet On Baseball And Win
How to bet MLB and win at baseball. Get your MLB betting questions in and the boys will answer and help you get better at betting baseball LIVE. Watch the Weather. Be aware of weather patterns. Gambling on baseball can be improved by paying.
- How To Bet On Baseball And Win Prizes
- How To Bet Baseball Lines
- Best Baseball Bet Today
- How To Bet On Baseball And Win Against
- How To Win Baseball Games
- The favored team is signified with the negative symbol and the underdog with the positive symbol. The line above means that the Astros need to win the game by more than 1.5 runs. However, a run line bet on the Nationals will payout if the team loses by less than +1.5 runs. So, a bet on the underdog wins even if the team doesn’t win.
- The money line for an underdog to win the game looks like this: +200 You’ll need rudimentary math skills to find the value bets, but it’s not that difficult. Essentially, if you place a $100 wager on an underdog that’s priced at -200, you will win $200.
Baseball betting is often cited as one of the most popular markets for sharp bettors. With thousands of yearly fixtures creating a large sample size to apply an analytical approach, learning how to bet on baseball could be the key to successful betting. Want to learn how to bet on baseball? Read on for the ultimate baseball betting guide.
How to bet on baseball
The first step to learning how to bet on baseball is to understand how the game is played. A standard baseball game comprises of two teams with nine players on each side. The teams take it in turns to bat and field for nine innings - each consisting of three “outs” for each team - and attempt to score the most runs by circling the four bases on the field.
Baseball betting - The basics
There are three basic bet types available for baseball betting; Money Line, Run Line and Total. Money Line baseball betting simply refers to which of the two teams will win the game. Run Line betting is baseball’s equivalent to NFL’s Point Spread, while Totals betting in baseball relates to the total number of runs scored in a game.
Money Line betting
Once bettors understand how to bet on baseball, the next step is to find out how to get an edge over the bookmaker. There are two main factors to consider that could inform your Money Line baseball betting:
Defence - The starting pitcher
With so many games in a typical MLB (Major League Baseball) season, it is important to be aware of rotation and who will be the starting pitcher in any given game. Although analysing a team’s bullpen (second choice or “relief” pitchers), it is ultimately the starting pitcher that provides the biggest variables.
Pitching stats to look out for include; IP (Innings Pitched), WHIP (Walks Plus Hits per Innings Pitched), ERA (Earned Run Average) and WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player).
Offence - The hitters
In addition to assessing the effectiveness of each team’s pitchers, the same should be done for batters. Again, there are numerous statistics available but some are considered more valuable than others; PA (Plate Appearances) wOBA (weighted On-Base Average), OBP (On-Base Percentage) and ISO (Isolated Power) are just a few examples of stats bettors should use.
Run Line betting
Betting on the Run Line can offer better value, but also requires slightly more advanced baseball knowledge. At a basic level, for those who know the value of 3 points in NFL betting, 1.5 points is effectively the same thing in baseball betting - it is a 1.5 point handicap that either side must cover for a bet on them to win.
A Run Line strategy can be devised to help bettors assess whether there is value in the market or not - this is done by converting the Run Line odds into a percentage chance of winning.
The simple formula to convert odds into probability percentages is below.
Converting odds into probability:
(Risk / return) x 100 = probability percentage
However, sharp bettors will calculate probability without the bookmaker’s margin - this can be done using the hypothetical example.
| Team | American Run Line odds | Decimal Run Line odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) | -101 | 1.99 |
| Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | -109 | 1.92 |
The following formula can be used to calculate no margin, or 'fair' odds:
(Boston Red Sox odds - Tampa Bay Rays odds) / 2 = Boston Red Sox no margin odds
After converting the Boston Red Sox odds into 'fair odds,' we can work out the percentage chance of a -1.5 Run Line bet on them winning:
To convert the decimal odds into probability, the process is just as straight forward. Simply convert the odds into a percentage to work out the bookmaker’s margin:
1/Decimal odds = implied probability
We then calculate the implied probability of all outcomes to get the margin.
(1/1.92) + (1/1.99) = 1.022 or 102.2% = 2.2% margin
Implied probability x (100 - margin) = fair probability percentage
Totals baseball betting
Just like Totals betting in any other sport, Totals in baseball betting refers to a bet on the total number of points (runs) scored in a game being over or under a figure set by the bookmaker - each team has 27 outs to score as many runs as they can, making it ideal for strategic betting.
Similarly to Money Line betting in baseball, analysing the two teams in terms of offensive and defensive strengths can go a long way to informing your Totals betting. Additionally, there are several external factors that can lead to both high and low scoring games.
External factors
Aside from analysing team and player performance, it is important to consider the external factors that could affect your baseball betting. While baseball shares similarities with other sports in terms of home field advantage and being affected by the weather, it differs slightly because of how important luck is.
Heat thins the air and enables the ball to travel further, but the less humid it is the thicker the air becomes, making it harder for the ball to travel.
Different baseball stadiums have different dimensions and this can influence how many runs are scored. Coors Field, home of the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Chase Field are renowned for high scoring games. In contrast, San Francisco Giants’ AT&T Park and Safeco Field - where the Seattle Mariners play their home games are known to be low scoring stadiums.
The temperature, humidity and wind speed on game day also affects baseball betting. Heat thins the air and enables the ball to travel further, but the less humid it is the thicker the air becomes, making it harder for the ball to travel.
The wind has a more obvious impact on baseball which can work both for and against batters. If a strong wind is blowing in the opposite direction to where a batter is hitting, the ball won’t go very far. If the wind is with the batter and going in the same direction as their hit, it will help the ball go further - wind speed and direction is certainly worth analysing for Totals baseball betting.
You can build on this knowledge by learning more about developing a baseball betting strategy. Alternatively, read about how Joe Peta capitalised on discprancies in MLB odds to make money in our Trading Bases book review.
How To Bet On Baseball And Win Prizes
Now that you know how to bet on baseball, you can implement this expertise and take advantage of Pinnacle’s unbeatable baseball betting odds.
The baseball season may have ended but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to improve your MLB betting game. Betting on baseball is a great way to increase your enjoyment of the sport. It’s also a great way to make a little bit of money on the side.
Many people make money betting on baseball every year. People bet on many sports in Las Vegas, and baseball is no exception.
If you enjoy watching baseball already, you will really enjoy betting on baseball at online sportsbooks. The bet will keep you on the edge of your seat. Every catch, throw, and hit will have your money on the line.
If you’re an experienced baseball better, or just a gambler who’s looking to get into betting on baseball, this article is for you.
I’ll discuss all the strategies that are useful for betting on baseball. These strategies will help you make money while watching your favorite game. Your friends will be amazed by your insightful knowledge into gambling on baseball.
Keep reading to learn my 4 favorite strategies for betting on baseball. Batter up!
1- Watch the Weather
Be aware of weather patterns. Gambling on baseball can be improved by paying attention to the details. You’ll never have a 100% bet, but if you pay attention to things like the weather, you can increase your odds.
Whether it’s sunny or cloudy, you need to pay attention.
The outcome of the ballgame can be skewed by the weather. The odds maker can make odds that make the Cardinals an underdog. But if the weather is cloudy and the wind is blowing that day, the Cardinals may have a better chance of winning.
You wouldn’t think that the weather can affect baseball games much, but it can. One thing you’ll find surprising is that the direction the wind is blowing can increase your odds to win.
If the wind blows in, then the under team has a better chance to win. So it would be in your best interest to take the under. Even though it’s a longer shot, you stand to win more money. If you want to take the risk of betting on a long shot, do it on a day when the wind is blowing in.
The opposite is true when the wind is blowing out. Research has shown the wind benefits overs when it’s blowing out. The wind will help the better odds team hit more homers. If you want to make a sure thing even more of a sure thing, take the over bet when the wind is blowing out.
2- Know the Team’s Schedules
Baseball teams play long, grueling seasons. Their seasons last for 162 games. On top of that, the games are long and players will wear down as the season goes on. You should be aware of how long the baseball season is when you prepare to place your bets.
In addition to having long seasons, baseball players are also on the road for long stretches of time.
If you’re preparing to place a bet on a long shot underdog, make sure they haven’t just finished off a 12-game road trip.
Think about how the road trip may affect the teams.
The underdog will have a better chance to win than you’d expect because the team they’re playing against is full of tired players recovering from jet lag who probably wish they were at home with their families instead of playing baseball.
The inverse is also true. If a long shot is at the end of a road trip, you definitely don’t want to bet on them to upend the better team. Be aware of where teams are in their road trips and their schedules. Make this another part of your arsenal to help you make money betting on baseball.
Next, I’ll show you a little known secret.
3- Research Umpires
Making money on baseball is easier if you follow these simple rules. You’ll find more success betting on baseball if you are more educated about the game. If you want to make money, you’ll find the devil is in the details.
Umpires are an important part of the game of baseball.
Even though they’re not players, they can have an influence on the outcome of the game. They call balls and strikes, call who’s safe, and make sure any other rules of baseball are enforced throughout the course of a game. What I want to talk to you today about is the way they call balls and strikes.
Umpires can affect a game in many ways. If you want to increase your betting odds and make money betting on baseball, you only need to focus on one of the umpires tasks: the strike zone.
Here are three reasons you should focus on the strike zone:
- The strike zone can influence who wins the game
- Different umpires have different strike zones.
- You can find information about umpire strike zones online.
If Clayton Kershaw is pitching and an umpire is known to have a large strike zone, you have a great opportunity to bet on the under. Kershaw will carve up hitters if he’s given a wide strike zone. If you’re aware of this when you make the bet, you can make a lot of money.
The opposite can be true as well. If a pitcher is making their Major League debut and an umpire is known to have tight strike zone, the pitcher will struggle. The opposing team will likely tee off on a young pitcher without a big enough strike zone to work with.
The best part about all of this is that you can find the information on umpires online. Swishanalytics.com gives you access to statistics of umpires for free. You can see which umpires call the most strikes and which ones call the most balls. Now you’ll know which umpire has a tight strike zone and which one has a loose strike zone.
4- Research Park Factors
The ballpark itself can have a huge effect on which team will win as well. Park factors include the different effects ballparks can have on teams. Be aware of park factors to increase your odds of taking home some cash.
Park factors can manifest themselves in different ways. You’ll need to learn what they mean if you want to make more money gambling. Understand park factors to increase your odds of taking some money home.
Some ballparks favor offense, and some favor defense.
Some parks give a significant advantage to a team with a good offense.
- These ballparks have a higher runs/game stat, and teams with lots of homerun hitters do well at them.
Some ballparks favor pitching.
- These ballparks have a low run/game number. They also usually have a low HR/FB rate.
For example, San Francisco is a very pitcher-friendly park. Pitchers usually do well though because batters don’t hit a lot of homeruns.
Texas is a very batter-friendly park.
Batters do well there, and a lot of their flyballs turn into homeruns. You can use this advanced knowledge to your advantage when you gamble. If you know a pitcher is prone to giving up homers and they’re pitching in a homer friendly park, you’ll now know not to bet on them.
You might see a team that has long odds to win. Vegas thinks they have no chance of winning.
How To Bet Baseball Lines
However, the team has good offense, and they are playing in a batter-friendly park.
Now you’ll know a bet on them may be smart.
You can make some serious money if you place a bet on a team with long odds to win and win the bet. You can place the bet with confidence if you know which ballparks are more batter-friendly and which are more pitcher-friendly.
Research ballparks before you place a bet. As a gambler, you need to use every tool at your disposal.
Best Baseball Bet Today
How To Bet On Baseball And Win Against
Look at park factors to increase your betting odds and make more money betting on baseball.
Conclusion
Betting on baseball can be a fun way to participate in the National Pastime. Follow the tips I’ve given you to make money betting baseball. Research park factors, umpires, the weather, and schedules and you’ll have a lot more fun betting and winning on baseball.
How To Win Baseball Games
Do you have any other tips that I left out? Let me know in the comments.