Moneyline betting is one of the most popular ways to gamble on the NFL, and one of my favorites. I like moneyline betting because it’s so straightforward: in simplest terms, moneyline betting strategy is just picking which team is going to win the game – straight-up. No handicaps, no line, no adjustments – just choose one team or the other. View NFL odds and bet online legally, securely, and easily on NFL games all season.

1. Moneyline Nfl Betting
2. What's A Moneyline Bet
3. Moneyline Bet Calculator
4. Best Money Line Bets Nfl
5. Best Money Line Bets Nfl Week
6. Best Money Line Bets Nfl Week 11

View Week 1 NFL Moneylines from 100+ experts. Find out which team the Expert Consensus would bet for every NFL game. A moneyline requires bettors to pick the winner of the game, but the odds are adjusted according to each team’s ability. A -200 favorite is expected to win the game, so bettors need to risk $2 for every $1 they want to win. A +150 underdog gives bettors the chance to win $1.50 for every $1 risked. Moneyline bets present the most straightforward way to wager on a sports contest. A moneyline wager simply asks the bettor to choose which team will win a game, with no point spread involved.

The ultimate resource to help you find the best bets each day in NFL football.

Here you will find a list of our best NFL bets against the spread. This page will be updated several times over the weekend.

The page is divided into 4 simple sections.

The first section lists all of our premium member best bets for the day. This section lists all the games for all sports, including NFL. If you don't have a membership at Doc's Sports then you can test out our premium best bets risk free with a complimentary free $60 account here.

The second section lists a couple of our complimentary NFL best bet matchup reports. We write these for every single NFL game. These articles are more for the do-it-yourself types that want to really dig in and also have the time do the extensive research required each day.

The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in NFL.

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Sign up for one of the above best NFL expert picks here. If you are not ready to sign up for one of our top NFL plays, below you will find a free NFL pick and matchup report. You can get free NFL picks weekly for every game here.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, 2/7/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Super Bowl
by Tony Sink - 1/26/2021

The Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium (6:30 PM EST). The expected starters at QB are Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs and Tom Brady for the Buccaneers. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread. Read More >>

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, 1/24/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, NFC Championship
by Tony Sink - 1/19/2021

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field (3:05 PM EST). The quarterbacks expected to start the game are Tom Brady for the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread. Read More >>

What Makes a Best Bet in NFL? [Updated during the season]

Doc's Sports Service is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States. Below you will find a list of 10 tips for finding an NFL best bet each week from 10 of the top NFL Football handicapping experts in the country. Our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. With nearly 50 years of handicapping experience, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports information industry.

We offer our clients top NFL Football predictions at one fair price. Our NFL Football handicappers release a full slate of NFL Football picks at 6 p.m. EST each Thursday throughout the season. Every one of our NFL Football handicappers has a different style, but all have enjoyed vast success, including putting up some big numbers with their weekly best bets and top games, available every week for just $30 apiece.

Here are 10 tips from our NFL handicappers on how to find an NFL best bet each week:

DOC'S SPORTS – An NFL best bet for me is a team that is coming off an embarrassing performance the week before. All NFL players are paid professionals and have pride and do not like to be blown out on television. Therefore, I like to play a team that got blown out the week before. The oddsmakers usually inflate the spread because they public saw how bad they looked the week prior. An example of this from 2016 is a Week 2 game between Seattle and Los Angeles. The Rams opened up on Monday Night Football at San Francisco and lost 28-0 in embarrassing fashion. They were a +5.5-point home underdog the following week against Seattle and won that game straight up by a score of 9-3.

ROBERT FERRINGO – When I am handicapping, regardless of sport, I think it is important not to just look at what happened but why and how it happened. There are so many misleading scores in the NFL each week that it is crucial to go back and re-watch games and analyze box scores to find those 'hidden plays' that may have had an outsized impact on a game. There are also several statistics that I use that correlate total yardage, yardage differential, scoring and both ATS and over/under performance. And when I see statistical outliers I just know that a best bet is coming. For example, in 2017 one of my biggest totals bets of the year came in Week 10 on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Houston. This total wasn't on anyone's radar, but I was all over it for my NFL best bet that weekend. The Jaguars had rung up 450 yards and 25 first downs the week before against a tough Chiefs defense. But they only scored 14 points because of three fumbles, an INT, a missed field goal and a dropped touchdown pass. They had been averaging around 370 yards per game but just 17 points in their previous four games, so I just knew they were destined to put some points on the board. Sure enough, that game went 'over' the total and kicked off a stretch where the Jaguars went 5-2 against the total and they closed the season going 7-3 on the 'over' in their last 10 games. You can't just look at final scores. You have to analyze how things played out, and that will help you determine what results are legit and which ones were flukes. And then bet the next week accordingly.

RAPHAEL ESPARZA - What I have noticed in the NFL both behind the counter and now in front of the counter is that your NFL best bets should be on hot teams until they are no longer hot. Ask any Vegas or online sportsbook director, and in 2016 the books struggled with the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders repeatedly covering point spreads. And I'm not even talking about moneyline parlays, teasers, and the hot teams that covered the totals. Normally the NFL oddsmakers are really good on Sunday, but every year there is between 1-3 teams that every Sunday the books do not want to see win and cover games. Find out those teams and ride them and you will cash straight bets, moneyline parlays and of course your top plays of the week.

STRIKE POINT SPORTS- A handicapper doesn't want to try to find a best bet each and every week because they just aren't always there. Strike Point Sports prides itself on careful, strategic selections, and this proves beneficial when finding the 'big play' or 'best bet of the week'. We tend to lean towards a home team that is getting less than three points. In many cases when two teams are even, Las Vegas will lay the field goal spread on the home team. When they set the line less than that there is value to be had, especially if it is a team that plays well in front of their home fans. Keep an eye out for the 'short home favorite' in the NFL when you're looking for a best bet. We all know the normal 3-point line on a home team, but we don't all realize the value on the short chalk. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

ALLEN EASTMAN – If you want to be a good NFL handicapper, then you need to be able to think like an oddsmaker. I make my own spread for every single game. And then I compare my lines to the lines that the sportsbooks release. I look where there are the biggest differences, and those are the games I look at first. Of course, it helps when I also have the NFL 411 System, which is based on more than 90 different statistics. It is very detailed, and that is why it is the only documented NFL system to hit better than 60 percent for the past 11 years while producing more than +$25,000 in profit. When I am looking for a best bet, I look to the NFL 411 System. But if you don't have these plays then your best bet each week should be on the play where there is the biggest difference between your spread and the spread the books have out. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

JASON SHARPE - The reason why the NFL is considered the toughest sport to win at betting-wise is because information in this sport is everywhere. So trying to look at the stats, watch the games, and paying attention to final scores isn't enough to give someone an edge in this sport. The key is to focus on the one area that the NFL betting markets don't place a big enough emphasis on, and that area is with injuries. The NFL is the sport that deals the most with game-to-game injuries. Being on top of this is where one can find their biggest edges overall as an NFL bettor. I'm not talking about well-known injuries to quarterbacks, but instead look at the guys that most folks don't pay attention to like offensive lineman or guys in the secondary. It's not just about who's out of a particular game for a team, either, but also how good/bad the guy replacing them is also and how big of a drop-off overall there is from player to player. Just as important as that is knowing which guys are now back in the lineup from a recent injury and that effects the team compared to how they played when he is out with an injury. Last year on October 30 I won my 7-Unit NFL total on 'over' in the Washington/Cincinnati game. Both teams had been missing their All-Pro level tight ends of late but both were expected to be back in this one and at full strength. There were a lot of examples of both teams offenses struggling without those two guys on the field earlier in the year, and both coaches had stated how valuable both guys were not only because of how good they are but also because there wasn't another player on their rosters who could bring what these two had brought to their respective teams. Both guys had a huge impact in this contest as they each caught nine passes in the game and helped open up their team's offense, which in turn pushed this game 'over' the total. You have to keep very good notes on players injuries and the effects on their team, and if you do so you can gain a big edge in a sport that doesn't have as many big edges. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a spread based on three power ratings I use. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects, that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up, and the situation is nicely favorable on the NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a big play!

ALAN HARRIS - Working in various Las Vegas sportsbooks for eight years has shown me firsthand that you have to bet against the public when making a big move. Information is now readily available on the web that wasn't around even five years ago, and it's fairly easy to find out what the public is on at various offshore sportsbooks. This info isn't as readily available for the Vegas books, so still having a few connections there certainly doesn't hurt things on our end. It's been noted for those that are behind the counter that if you just bet against the top five teams that the public has put into parlays by closing time on Saturday night, you'd come out ahead at the end of the season. Now, like any system, this isn't foolproof, but being on the side the house needs, especially in the NFL, is never a bad thing. In 2016, we used this theory to perfection in hitting our 8-Unit NFL Playoff Game of the Year with the Packers +5.5 on the road at Dallas in the Divisional Round. Dallas opened up as a 3.5-point favorite, and the books couldn't get a bet on the Packers. We already liked Green Bay, and talking to a few sports book managers around town just confirmed it. We cashed this one with the Packers winning outright, 34-31, advancing to the NFC Championship.

VERNON CROY- A best bet for me in the NFL must fall into one of my top systems. I almost always want to see a line where I feel there is exceptional value. So say the Bears are favored by three points, and my analytics have them winning by 14 points, then there is exceptional line value with the Bears at -3 since the line is off by 11 points. Generally I also want the top play to be going against public perception, as there is added value, especially in the NFL. I want all top plays to have a high percentage of winning regardless of the sport. I have been very successful in the NFL with my top plays because of my 19 years of experience, and I learn from my losses and build on wins.

TONY GEORGE – More so than other sports, you bet numbers in the NFL, not games. In all sports the number is important. However the NFL system I use is power ratings measured against the Las Vegas line based on numerous criteria. When I have an overlay against the spread of more than five points and up to six points, then I will make it my NFL best bet of the weekend. And any numbers bigger than that, which is very rare, I will triple up the normal wager for a huge play. In 2016 I had the Steelers at the Browns laying eight with an overlay of six points. That means my power rating between Pittsburgh and Cleveland was 14 points. That was my Game of the Year in 2016. Your average overlay is around three or four points, if that. Pittsburgh won 24-9, which was by 15 points, so my power rating was off just one point. It is all about the numbers and power ratings in the NFL. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

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The sports betting industry is on a meteoric rise in this country and we’re approaching one of the first NFL seasons where it will be possible to legally wager on most games outside of Nevada. Even in a largely illegal market, the American Gaming Association estimated that bettors wagered over $4.3 billion on Super Bowl LV alone.

With ample time between games and a wealth of strategy to consider, football is an understandably popular sport for mainstream bettors. Using analytics to gain an edge in predicting how games will unfold can help the savvy bettor go against the grain to earn big paydays. Conversely, the popularity of NFL betting can help bettors isolate a potential winner by piggybacking on research conducted by the masses.

This page can serve as a reference for residents of states that have legalized online betting. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.

NFL team betting guides

Where is NFL betting legal?

When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May of 2018, it opened the door for individual states to legalize sports gambling. Beginning with New Jersey (the original plaintiff in the PASPA case), several states quickly moved to legalize and regulate the industry within state lines. Betting on the NFL and other professional sports is still not federally legal, but residents of the following states can place bets at live sportsbooks:

Nevada
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Delaware
Mississippi
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Arkansas
Iowa
New York
Oregon
Indiana
Illinois
Montana

Most other states in the US have introduced some sort of bill that would legalize sports gambling. Of course, some states are far closer than others to legalizing the industry. Visit our state betting pages at TheLines.com to get a look at the status in each state.

Best NFL betting sites and apps

There are a number of apps available for sports betting in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, West Virginia and Nevada. Some of the best:

The top players in the industry are DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, and SugarHouse.

How does NFL betting work?

There are several ways to bet on NFL action. We’ll begin with the most simple type of bet: The moneyline. Taking the Moneyline means you’re betting on the winning team regardless of the margin of victory. Underdogs will get plus-odds on the moneyline and the favorites will have negative odds. For example, if a team is heavily favored they will be listed as Patriots (-230), meaning that a successful $230 bet on the Patriots pays out $100.

This differs from betting on the point spread, which accounts for the expected margin of victory. If the Patriots are heavily favored at home, they might be listed as -13.5, meaning a bet (likely at something close to -110 odds) on the Pats would only pay out if they win by 14 points or more.

Gamblers can also target the overall betting total of a game, which is usually listed as a number around 48.5 with the proposition of taking the Over or Under on a point total. Some sites offer the opportunity to bet on the expected point total of one team (23.5 points for example).

Then, there is often an extensive number of betting props (or propositions) where gamblers can wager on the individual performance of a player, the type of score to open a game, and the specific margin of victory. These options are often more expansive in prime time and playoff games.

Gamblers can choose to combine multiple propositions on a game, or multiple bets on different games, into a parlay. This wager is an all-or-nothing proposition which only pays out if all (anywhere between two and a dozen) bets are successful. The more bets added to a parlay, the greater the potential payout.

A teaser is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you can adjust the point spread or total to your specifications. These bets are therefore more likely to succeed, but the payouts are smaller than in a parlay.

Finally, there is an option to bet on NFL futures. Rather than betting on an individual game, Futures offer gamblers the opportunity to bet on the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion, or the number of wins that a team will accrue during the regular season. There are also futures bets available on postseason awards and other ongoing storylines.

Super Bowl odds 2022

NFL live betting

Another method of wagering on the NFL is live betting, also known as in-play betting. No longer are gamblers required to place their bets before opening kickoff and ride out the storm. Now users can watch a game unfold for one, two, or three quarters and place their bets based on updated odds.

The odds on online sportsbooks will shift throughout games and sometimes it won’t be possible to place a live bet until a team finishes their current drive and the odds can solidify. This can be a very effective method for the experienced sports fan. Those who can read how a game is unfolding in the opening minutes can target a line aggressively.

For example, the most recent Super Bowl between the Patriots and Rams turned into an offensive quagmire where neither team appeared poised to rack up many points. Those viewers that read into game flow and placed a bet on the Under (even as it shifted lower) were rewarded by a comfortable payout in a game that ended 13-3.

Moneyline Nfl Betting

NFL betting trends

There are several free sites that will disclose information on where the public is betting in terms of the moneyline, point spread, and point total. These trends can lead to a shift in the lines as sportsbooks try to adjust when too much money is coming in on one side or the other.

These trends can also indicate which side of the line is a better bet based on the sheer number of bets coming in. However, the percentage of bets coming in on one side or the other is often not as telling as the percentage of money coming in on one side of the line.

A ton of bets indicates that the reactive public expects a favorite to roll, but a ton of money on one side indicates that experienced gamblers or “sharps” have found something in their research to inspire confidence.

Following the money usually profits, but there is a high level of risk and reward in “contrarian handicapping” by going against the public and backing an underdog at plus odds.

NFL line shopping

With so many sportsbooks and platforms competing for your wagers, there’s no reason not to shop around for the best deal. Some sites might have a team with a line of -4 (-110) on a particular game, but another site could have the same team at -3.5 (+120). There is generally an industry standard, but even a sleight differentiation can lead to huge changes in dividends in the long run. It’s vital for bettors to shop lines on multiple sites even if they don’t have a huge bankroll. If that’s the case, simply decrease the amount you’re betting on each game.

You can also shop lines by timing when you place your bets. Oddsmakers will set an Opening Line early in the week, but that could change based on how the public bets the game. Sometimes it makes sense to hammer an Opening Line right away so that you get the best odds possible. For example, the Packers could open at -7 at home against a poor opponent, but after 90% of bets come in on Green Bay, that number could rise. Conversely, the underdog might become appealing late in the week if the spread rises to 13 or even 14 points. Waiting for the right line can create the perfect opportunity to bet against the public at even better odds.

NFL Betting Tips

Finding a betting formula

Consistent success in NFL betting is hard to come by, since sportsbooks are often eerily accurate in how they set Spreads and Point Totals. In order to turn a profit, bettors have to find their own formula for determining value and potential winners.

What's A Moneyline Bet

It’s possible to “follow the masses” by betting on favorites that are seeing a huge percentage of wagers, but it is far more reliable to analyze trends and look for value based on those raw numbers.

As the season progresses, it can become apparent which teams have a tendency to “play down” to their opponent. Certain teams tend to play better when going up against heavy favorites, and many teams tend to play better or worse in prime time games. Analyzing a teams’ recent travel schedule, results on the road vs. at home, and tendency to rebound after a loss (see Bill Belichick’s Patriots) can help bettors find a winning formula.

There are certain analytics available for free on many sites that can help you predict how a game will unfold. Here are some of the key analytics that we use to predict game flow:

• Pace (the average number of plays a team runs per game) – This can primarily help you identify fast-paced games that are likely to go Over the total, or slow-paced games that will go Under.
• Offensive efficiency – Especially in the red zone, offensive efficiency can serve as a great indicator for which teams are capable of finishing drives with touchdowns and therefore covering the spread. Pass yards per attempt is another indicator of which teams are successful on offense in terms of controlling possession and creating points.
• Turnovers – On the other side of the ball, teams with great defensive efficiency in the red zone may help games stay under the point total. Teams that have shown an ability to create turnovers are far more bankable in terms of hanging close in games and potentially stealing a game when they’re underdogs.
• Win Probability – This is an advanced tool that can help tremendously with live betting. Algorithms can provide the likelihood of a team holding on for the win and that makes for a very safe bet.
• DVOA – There are comprehensive numbers on how defenses perform against specific position groups. There are also numbers on how an offensive line performs in terms of creating space at the second level and whether defensive lines are stronger on the right or left side. Match up the numbers from each team to consider whether star players will have more of an impact and sway the outcome.
• Home Field Advantage – Teams such as the Packers, Chiefs, Saints, and Patriots have a tremendous home-field advantage for several reasons. Lofty point spreads in those venues should be considered with more weight than a lofty point spread for a team like the Bengals, for example.

Moneyline Bet Calculator

Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge.

NFL betting mistakes to avoid

Sports gambling can be a destructive force and should not be taken lightly or considered as a main source of income for anyone but the most experienced handicappers. Here’s a list of a few of the pitfalls that can turn a harmless habit into a money-draining problem:

Best Money Line Bets Nfl

• Chasing your losses: Gamblers can be overcome by a need to be “made whole” after losing their initial bet. This can be problematic during NFL Sundays since there is a new wave of games starting at 4 p.m. EST and two prime time games providing the opportunity to go “double or nothing” after an unsuccessful run in the early games.
• Managing bankroll: Again, the spreads and totals assigned by sportsbooks are often extremely accurate in terms of the final result, which means that few bets are a “sure thing.” Gamblers need to manage their bankroll wisely and avoid betting big on too many games regardless of their confidence level.
• Emotional betting: While gambling on NFL games should be fun, it’s not fun to lose your money because you were afraid to bet against your hometown team. Gamblers should always bet based on data, trends, and their gut feeling, rather than by their allegiances as fans.
• Hoping for longshots: It’s important to get good odds on a wager, but taking a bet that has little chance to come to fruition is not a reliable method. A horse with 50/1 odds would certainly pay out handsomely in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s a reason nobody expects that horse to have a shot at winning the race.
• Banking on favorites: Conversely, it’s unwise to always follow the public and take the more popular team with your wagers. Things change on a weekly basis in the NFL and teams always find a way to surprise. Remember that the other guys get paid too, and they’ll fight to the final whistle to post a more respectable score and potentially get under a lofty point spread.
• Betting while impaired: Again, NFL Sunday is a time to relax and enjoy a few adult beverages, but don’t get carried away while intoxicated. Accept losses when they come and avoid becoming overconfident because you’re feeling loose and unafraid of losing a few hundred dollars.

Online betting vs. retail sportsbooks

Best Money Line Bets Nfl Week

Few states have legalized online betting within state borders because it’s so difficult to regulate. But if you’re in a state with legal online betting, there are clear benefits to that platform. While retail sportsbooks will only accept bets before a game kicks off, online betting sites allow users to bet throughout the contest and adjust to live odds. The convenience of betting from your phone or laptop is hard to beat. That’s why live sportsbooks will offer promotions and try to enhance the in-game experience in order to draw in more numbers.

How to watch NFL games

Best Money Line Bets Nfl Week 11

Every Sunday select NFL games are broadcast on local TV. Viewers can watch any game by purchasing the Sunday Ticket through DirectTV, or the scoring highlights and exciting finishes compiled by the Red Zone channel. There are also options to stream NFL games through various online platforms. During the 2019-2020 season there will be Thursday Night Football games from Week 1 to Week 15 that will be broadcast on FOX and NFL Network. Sunday Night Football games are broadcast on NBC and ESPN carries Monday Night Football games.